23.10.2026

NEW REPORT: Global Domino – The South Caucasus in the Chain of Contemporary Crises

We are pleased to present the latest report by The Opportunity Institute for Foreign Affairs, entitled:

GLOBAL DOMINO: THE SOUTH CAUCASUS IN THE CHAIN OF CONTEMPORARY CRISES

The South Caucasus is emerging as a critical intersection of contemporary geopolitical crises. Russia’s war against Ukraine, instability in the Middle East, competition over transport corridors, and shifts in the European security architecture are elevating the strategic importance of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia for Europe and NATO.

The report examines how the changing regional balance of power — including Russia’s weakening position, the growing influence of Turkey and Iran, and increased engagement by the United States and the European Union — is shaping security, economic cooperation, infrastructure development, and prospects for stability across the South Caucasus. It also explores how local tensions could escalate into crises with wider strategic implications.

“The South Caucasus is no longer a peripheral post-Soviet space, but part of a broader security system linking the Middle East, the Black Sea, and NATO’s eastern flank.”

Led by Marcin Popławski, with contributions from Julia Banaś, the report combines regional expertise with a European and transatlantic perspective. It also incorporates insights from experts affiliated with think tanks, academia, and foreign policy institutions.

The report addresses several key issues, including:

• The shifting balance of power in the South Caucasus and the erosion of Russian influence;
• The implications of conflicts in the Middle East for regional security and NATO’s eastern flank;
• The strategic importance of transport corridors and energy supply diversification for Europe;
• Prospects for the normalisation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan;
• The role of the European Union, NATO, and Poland in strengthening regional stability and resilience.

The report highlights the need for a more coherent, long-term EU and NATO strategy towards the South Caucasus. Key priorities include supporting the Armenian-Azerbaijani normalisation process, strengthening the resilience of critical infrastructure, and improving the monitoring of escalation risks along strategically important transport corridors.

The South Caucasus is not a distant region on the geopolitical map. Its future has direct implications for European security.

We invite you to download the full report, available in English in English!